The doctoral thesis Discreet choice models in transport with random coefficients, by Alfonso Orro Arcay, has won the III abertis Award. The research performed by this lecturer at the Engineering and Transportation Infrastructure Department of the University of A Coruña represents a step forward in the development of mathematical models that allow for the decisions of individuals when whose transport types or a route.
In granting the award to this thesis, the jury has taken into account the contributions made at an international level by Alfonso Orro, which will allow for the introduction of important improvements in road traffic forecasting and in the demand for transport in general.
The winning work is based on a logit-type model, created in the seventies by the 2000 Nobel Prize for Economics winner Daniel McFadden and improved in recent years by the “mixed logit” model. This statistical model determines the probability of choosing a transport system (private vehicle or some type of public transport) on the basis of certain variables and the characteristics of the other transport alternatives (cost, journey time, regularity, comfort, etc.). Alfonso Orro perfects these models and creates a new one, the Box-Cox Logit model. The model designed by Alfonso Orro adds new statistical tests and minimises the possibility of making the erroneous predictions that characterise current models.